Trump Could Influence a Third Term After Potential Successor Named

At the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on July 24, 2026, Donald Trump reached behind his podium, pulled out a red cap, placed it on his head, and told the room of journalists he had “a scoop.” He announced his “intention to run for a fourth term as president of the United States.” The crowd’s reaction was mixed – some clapped, some laughed, and most reporters just stared straight ahead. The hat read “Trump 2028.”

The moment landed as a joke, and Trump said as much. But a joke requires a punchline that doesn’t also require a constitutional amendment, a loyal ally in the Oval Office, or a carefully positioned family member on the ballot. The more pointed question is whether he can effectively remain the most powerful force in American politics without appearing on a ballot at all.

Author and political commentator Thom Hartmann has suggested Donald Trump Jr. as the most plausible vehicle for a Trump-aligned presidency after 2028 – not as a conventional successor, but as a way to keep the family’s political project intact. On the Kalshi prediction market, Vance currently holds a 40% probability to win the GOP nomination, with Rubio at 30%, but Rubio has emerged as the favorite to win the general election. In that context, the idea of a Trump family candidacy is less fringe than it might seem – it’s one of several scenarios now circulating in Republican political circles as the 2028 race slowly takes shape.

Why Trump Can’t Run Again

The 22nd Amendment states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” Trump was elected to the presidency in 2016 and in 2024. Legal scholars note that the use of the word “elected” leaves open the question of whether a person can “serve” as president without being elected to that office a third time – though any president trying to exploit that interpretation would face serious legal hurdles.

The amendment, ratified in 1951, was spurred by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was elected president an unprecedented four times. Roosevelt served just over twelve years before dying in office on April 12, 1945, less than three months into his fourth term. The public and congressional reaction to that concentrated executive power produced the amendment within six years of his death.

Donald Trump, having served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021 and recently elected as the 47th president in 2024, is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. Flying on Air Force One between Japan and South Korea, Trump appeared to finally acknowledge a third term isn’t in the cards. He told reporters: “I would say that if you read it, it’s pretty clear I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad.”

In a March interview with NBC News, Trump insisted he was “not joking” about the possibility of seeking a third term, claiming there were “methods” that could make it possible. “There are methods which you could do it,” he said – a comment that kept the political speculation alive even as he acknowledged the constitutional ceiling.

The Constitutional Workarounds

Three main pathways have circulated among legal commentators and Trump allies, all carrying serious constitutional and practical obstacles.

The most direct is a constitutional amendment. Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., introduced a House Joint Resolution to amend the Constitution to allow a president to be elected for up to but no more than three terms. The push to amend the Constitution never truly caught fire in Congress despite Ogles’ resolution, and the measure has not moved forward. Repealing or amending the 22nd Amendment would require the approval of 75% of state legislatures – a practically insurmountable obstacle with nearly half the states controlled by Democrats who strongly oppose Trump.

The second scenario involves running as a vice presidential candidate, with a nominated running mate who would then step aside or appoint Trump to the presidency through succession. The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, provides that in the case of the removal, death, or resignation of the president, the vice president shall become president. Trump dismissed this approach directly. He said, “I think the people wouldn’t like that. It’s too cute. It’s not, it wouldn’t be right.”

The third scenario – the one most discussed in political circles right now – doesn’t require any constitutional maneuvering at all. It simply requires the right candidate.

Who’s Next in Line?

Donald Trump Jr. has not completely ruled out launching a 2028 presidential campaign, and Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio currently sit as frontrunners for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. These three names represent very different visions of what a post-Trump Republican Party could look like.

Trump Jr. polled modestly in early 2026. At the 2026 CPAC gathering, “Trump 2028” merchandise was prominently on display even as the mood among attendees about an actual third term had cooled. The argument for Trump Jr. as a successor isn’t about his independent political identity – it’s about his proximity to the original. A Trump Jr. presidency, his critics and some of his supporters would both agree, would function as something very close to a third Trump term in everything but name.

Hartmann, speaking exclusively about the succession question, said: “Keep an eye on Donald Trump Jr., who may be the dark horse here.” He added that such a move “could hand Trump a fourth and fifth term of real power, although his age argues it’d simply be the beginning of a Kennedy-like political dynasty.”

The race between Vance and Rubio is more conventional, and more competitive than it looked even six months ago. On Kalshi, Vance’s odds for the GOP nomination have slipped to just 33% from around 50% at the start of the year, while Rubio has risen to 30% from around 12%. Rubio has passed Vance as the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election overall – a significant shift from a year ago when he trailed the VP by 25 points.

Trump told reporters that Vance is “most likely” his heir apparent, adding “In all fairness, he’s the vice president.” He also proposed that Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio join forces for a future Republican ticket. Whether that comment was sincere political analysis or Trump keeping his options open is a distinction that has defined much of his second term.

Read More: What Do Americans Really Think About Trump’s Mental Sharpness? New Poll Reveals

Bannon’s Bet and the True Believers

Not everyone in Trump’s orbit treats the third-term conversation as a joke or a hypothetical. Steve Bannon, a former White House chief strategist and MAGA podcaster, told The Economist in a video interview: “Trump is going to be president in ’28 and people ought to just get accommodated with that.” Asked if the 22nd Amendment could prove to be a hard barrier, Bannon said: “There’s many different alternatives. At the appropriate time, we’ll lay out what the plan is, but there is a plan.”

According to PolitiFact’s analysis, constitutional scholars found that whatever interpretation could make a third Trump presidential term possible, it would violate the 22nd Amendment’s clear intent. That hasn’t slowed the commercial side of the conversation. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has said “President Trump is only here in D.C. for four years,” underscoring the 22nd Amendment – even as Trump keeps publicly hinting otherwise. When asked about the chance that Trump may push for another term, she smiled and said, “Trump trolling – although the hats are flying off the shelves.” On the Trump Organization’s site, red hats bearing “Trump 2028” are sold for $50 apiece.

The “Trump 2028” brand is already worth something commercially, whether or not Trump can run again in any legal sense – and that commercial reality keeps the conversation active among both supporters and opponents.

What This Means for You

The identity of the next Republican nominee will shape immigration policy, healthcare access, economic regulation, and America’s international commitments for at least four years. Vance’s once-dominant position in the Republican 2028 field is weakening, with Rubio’s odds surging from 12% to 30% on Kalshi since the start of the year, and speculation is growing inside Republican circles over who is best positioned to carry the MAGA mantle forward.

Trump’s endorsement, when it comes, will matter enormously. A president who remains deeply engaged in factional politics, sells campaign merchandise for a race he cannot legally enter, and whose son is publicly floating a presidential run is not a president fading quietly from political life. Whoever the Republican Party nominates in 2028, the defining question of that campaign will almost certainly center on the same thing being debated right now: how much of Trump’s agenda carries forward, and through whom.

AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.