These Cities Could Disappear By 2030 Thanks to Climate Change

Dozens of major cities around the world face a future underwater. Rising seas and sinking land threaten to push coastlines inland, flooding neighborhoods that millions of people call home. Climate Central, a nonprofit research organization, has mapped these cities at risk using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 6th Assessment Report, completed in 2023.

The 7th Assessment Report is still in development and won’t arrive until 2029, so this remains the most current global assessment available. Their projections show what could happen if warming continues on its current path. They put many coastal cities at risk of partial or total submersion within the next few years. Some of these places have already started building defenses, but others are running out of time.

Why Some Cities Are Running Out of Time

Satellite data shows global sea levels rose roughly 4 inches between 1993 and 2023, with some ocean basins gaining 6 to 8 inches. Darker blue indicates the most dramatic increases. Image by: NOAA Climate.gov

Many coastal cities sit on ground that is actively sinking beneath them. A phenomenon called land subsidence that happens when excessive groundwater pumping and the weight of urban development compress the earth. When sinking land meets rising water, the problem accelerates far beyond what either force would cause alone. Some cities lose 1 to 10 inches of elevation every year. A city sitting comfortably above sea level today could find itself underwater within a decade.

Bangkok, Thailand

Satellite comparison of the same region before and after flooding, with green farmland and urban development on the left transformed into murky brown floodwater covering most of the landscape on the right. — Floodwaters from the Chao Phraya River submerge fields, roads, and buildings near Ayutthaya, Thailand (right), compared to the same area three months earlier (left). Image by: NASA Earth Observatory image created by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using EO-1 ALI data provided courtesy of the NASA EO-1 team and the United States Geological Survey., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Bangkok sinks more than half an inch every year, and The Guardian has reported that parts of the city could fall below sea level by 2030. The Thai capital sits on soft clay at just 5 feet above the waterline, so there isn’t much room for error. In 2011, floods killed hundreds and left a fifth of Bangkok underwater. Projections suggest Suvarnabhumi International Airport could see regular flooding in the years ahead. The city has responded with infrastructure like Chulalongkorn University Centenary Park, which can hold a million gallons of rainwater during the monsoon season.

Jakarta, Indonesia

Vehicles stranded on a flooded urban street, with a white sedan submerged past its doors and a truck pushing through water while people gather on higher ground in the background. — *Vehicles push through floodwaters in Jakarta, where 4% of the city sits below sea level. Image by: VOA Indonesian Service, via Wikimedia Commons*

North Jakarta sinks 8 to 10 inches per year. One of the fastest rates on Earth, because illegal wells deflate the ground from below while urban sprawl adds weight from above. Close to 90% of the metropolitan region already lies below sea level, according to C40 Cities research. And more than 60% of its 10.6 million residents live in flood-vulnerable areas where the poorest face the greatest danger. The situation is so dire that the Indonesian government is building an entirely new capital called Nusantara on Borneo.

Venice, Italy

Floodwater washing over Venice's stone pavement as gondolas bob in an adjacent canal, with a seagull standing in ankle-deep water where tourists would normally walk. — *Venice’s seasonal high tide. Rising seas have made these floods more frequent and severe. Image by: Lothar John, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

In 2019, water submerged 90% of Venice at levels not seen in half a century. The city sinks a fraction of an inch every year. While the high tides that flood its streets grow more frequent. Venice has pinned its hopes on the MOSE flood barrier system, a project first designed in the 1980s that took decades to complete. The barriers can block incoming tides from the Adriatic Sea. But they require constant maintenance, and as sea levels keep rising, even the best engineering may not keep pace.

Miami, United States

A kayaker paddling through a flooded city intersection, with water reaching car door height in a parking lot and street signs marking the roads now submerged. — *High-tide flooding in the area has increased more than 400% since 2006. Image by: maxstrz on Flickr, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Miami’s sea levels rise faster than the global average, and what makes it worse is that traditional defenses won’t work. Because South Florida sits on porous limestone, seawater seeps up through the ground even when walls block it from the sides. Flooding already contaminates drinking water and damages roads across a metro area that sits almost entirely at low elevation. With nowhere higher to retreat. Environmental author Jeff Goodell told Business Insider he sees no scenario in which Miami exists at the end of the century.

New Orleans, United States

Residential street flooded to rooftop level on parked cars, with single-story homes partially submerged and pine trees standing in brown water. — *Floodwaters engulf homes in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina breached the city’s levees in August 2005. Image by: National Archives at College Park – Still Pictures, via Wikimedia Commons*

New Orleans was entirely above water when it was first developed in the 1800s. But about 5% had dropped below sea level by 1895, 30% by 1935. And today, more than half the city sits beneath the waterline, some parts 15 feet deep and sinking two inches per year. Decades of oil and gas drilling accelerated the process. A 2016 NASA study projected that the entire metropolitan area could become submerged by the end of the century. Levees and flood walls offer protection today, but they were not built for what’s coming.

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

A man standing calf-deep in floodwater outside a gas station, with motorbikes and shops lining the submerged street behind him. — *Seasonal flooding regularly disrupts daily life across Southeast Asia’s low-lying coastal cities. Image by: Bem photography:, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Ho Chi Minh City’s eastern districts sit on flat, heavily developed marshland that Climate Central’s maps show turning red by 2030. With Thủ Thiêm and areas stretching into the Mekong Delta facing the greatest danger. The city center may avoid full submersion, but flooding and tropical storms will grow more severe with each passing year, and Vietnam’s largest city has already felt the strain. Repeated flood events have pushed infrastructure to its limits while the costs of repair and recovery keep mounting. Millions of residents now depend on systems that were not designed for the conditions arriving.

Manila, Philippines

Residents wading and floating through chest-high floodwater in a residential neighborhood, using inner tubes and improvised rafts to navigate between partially submerged buildings. — *Monsoon flooding displaces tens of thousands annually in the Manila metropolitan area. Image by: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Manila sinks about 8 inches per year, 7 times faster than global sea levels are rising, according to the data. Excessive groundwater pumping has pulled the capital below sea level in some areas. While 20 typhoons hit annually, and drainage systems cannot move water fast enough when heavy rains arrive. If current trends continue, Earth.Org projects that nearly the entire population could face displacement by the end of the century, and unlike wealthier cities facing similar threats, Manila has limited resources to adapt.

Shanghai, China

Satellite view of a sprawling metropolitan area showing dense urban development interspersed with green spaces and waterways. — *Roughly 40% of the Indonesian capital now sits below sea level due to rapid land subsidence. Image by: Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2024, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO, via Wikimedia Commons*

Shanghai’s timeline runs longer than the other cities on this list, but its eventual fate carries consequences for the entire global economy. Parts of the city have dropped more than 10 feet since 1921, according to Earth.Org research. And some areas still sink up to half an inch per year. Shanghai has slowed the damage through groundwater regulations, buying itself time that cities like Jakarta do not have. The trouble is that supply chains and global markets depend on Shanghai’s port, so even gradual flooding will send costs rippling outward long before the city itself goes under.

Amsterdam, Netherlands

Aerial view of Amsterdam showing its distinctive semicircular canal ring pattern radiating outward from the historic center, with the IJ waterway visible along the northern edge. — *The UNESCO-listed canal system remains central to water management. Image by: Andrés Barrios, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Amsterdam’s defenses have held for centuries, but they were built for a world that no longer exists. The city sits low enough that only dams, barriers, and floodgates keep the North Sea at bay, and current infrastructure can handle roughly 3 feet of sea level rise. Projections suggest seas could climb 4 to 6.5 feet by 2100. Which means more than 700,000 people, 97% of the population, could face displacement according to Earth.Org. Dutch engineering may be the only reason Amsterdam belongs in a conversation about long-term survival rather than imminent collapse.

Rotterdam, Netherlands

Satellite image of the Rotterdam port area and river delta, with a yellow circle marking the location of flood defense infrastructure where waterways meet the North Sea. — *Part of the Delta Works built after the devastating 1953 floods, the barrier automatically closes to protect the port city from North Sea surges. Image by: NASA, via Wikimedia Commons*

Rotterdam sits up to 20 feet below sea level, but the city stopped trying to wall out the water. It pioneered infrastructure that works with flooding, turning parking garages into reservoirs and designing plazas to flood during storms and buy time for drainage. Climate Central projections suggest seas could rise 3 to 8 feet by 2100. Which would force the main storm surge barrier to close far more often. Dutch engineers now consult with vulnerable cities worldwide, but whether these innovations can scale fast enough remains an open question.

Georgetown, Guyana

A dark earthen embankment separating cultivated land from tidal flats under a cloudy sky, with palm fronds visible in the foreground. — The country’s network of dikes and drainage systems spans roughly 3,700 miles, protecting about 8 million people from tidal flooding and cyclone-driven storm surges. Image by: Dan Sloan, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Georgetown has relied on seawalls since colonial times, including one structure stretching 280 miles along the coast, and approximately 90% of Guyana’s population lives in areas that depend on these aging defenses. Climate Central places the city among those most likely to face severe damage by 2030. The walls already need constant reinforcement as storms grow stronger and tides reach higher. Guyana has oil reserves that could fund adaptation, but building new infrastructure takes time, the city may not have.

Khulna, Bangladesh

A cluster of tin-roofed homes on a small patch of land nearly surrounded by river water, with flooded rice paddies and trees visible in the overcast distance. — *Roughly 80% of the country is floodplain, leaving millions vulnerable to seasonal inundation from rivers draining the Himalayas. Image by: Frameofashik, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Khulna, Bangladesh’s third-largest city, sits just 29 feet above sea level, and the country’s 2021 floods showed how vulnerable it remains. Waterborne diseases already pose serious public health challenges that increased flooding would only worsen, and residents have few resources to relocate or rebuild. Bangladesh produces just 0.3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet faces some of the most severe consequences, and international adaptation funding has not arrived at anywhere near the scale needed to close that gap.

Basra, Iraq

Aerial view of geometric blue-green wetland pools in an otherwise arid desert Iraq landscape, showing managed water systems fed by a river channel — *Climate change has sharply reduced water levels across the region, threatening agriculture and drinking water supplies. Image by: NASA, via Wikimedia Commons*

Basra sits amid canals, streams, and marshland that make it especially vulnerable to rising seas. The surrounding wetlands, partially restored after being drained under Saddam Hussein’s regime, now face saltwater intrusion. The city already suffers from waterborne illness outbreaks that increased flooding would only worsen, and as a hub for Iraq’s oil industry, flood damage here could disrupt energy supplies well beyond the region. Critical facilities sit in zones that may become regularly inundated within years.

Alexandria, Egypt

A fisherman sits on Alexandria's concrete seawall as it curves into the Mediterranean, with the Egyptian city's skyline visible through the haze across the harbor. — Concrete barriers weighing up to 20 tons each have been placed offshore to protect the Mediterranean city, where rising seas and land subsidence threaten to displace millions by 2050. Image by: © Vyacheslav Argenberg / http://www.vascoplanet.com/, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Alexandria’s beaches have already begun disappearing as Mediterranean waters rise. NPR has reported the sea could climb as much as two feet by 2100. According to a UN Security Council session, the rise will affect 25% of Egypt’s population and 90% of its agricultural land. Ancient landmarks and archaeological sites face destruction. While local authorities have started building barriers to protect farmland from saltwater, these address symptoms rather than causes.

Kolkata, India

Two workers in yellow safety vests wade through knee-deep floodwater along a city sidewalk, with a blue metal railing separating them from the submerged street. — *Overwhelmed drainage systems routinely turn city streets into canals when heavy rainfall strikes densely populated urban areas. Image by: Sumita Roy Dutta, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Kolkata is sinking as groundwater pumping compacts the soil beneath it, a process called subsidence, and with sea levels rising at the same time. The gap between water and land closes from both directions. The city’s large impoverished population has the fewest options when flooding arrives because informal settlements along riverbanks face the greatest danger, and residents lack the resources to relocate. Kolkata reflects a reality visible across South Asia, where dense populations concentrate in flood-prone areas because affordable housing exists nowhere else.

Lagos, Nigeria

Vehicles navigate a flooded intersection under overcast skies, with standing water pooling across the road and a metal barrier partially submerged on the right. — *Rapid urbanization and inadequate drainage infrastructure leave many cities vulnerable to seasonal flooding. Image by: Bibiire1, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Lagos sits on lagoons and swampland that drain poorly during heavy rains, and growth has outpaced protective infrastructure for decades. Wealthier neighborhoods have seawalls, whereas informal settlements along the waterfront lack protection. At a UN Security Council meeting, representatives warned that hundreds of millions of Africans will face climate-related displacement by 2030, and some low-lying cities will become uninhabitable. Nigeria’s economic capital may be among them.

Malé, Maldives

Aerial view of Malé, the densely built capital of the Maldives, showing the entire island packed with buildings and surrounded by open ocean just meters from its edges. — With 80% of the island nation standing less than 3 feet above the waterline, climate scientists warn much of the country could be uninhabitable by 2100. Image by: Shahee Ilyas, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The Maldives lies barely 3 feet above sea level and has long recognized its precarious situation, a fact known to most nations. Rising tides don’t just threaten infrastructure here. They threaten existence. Malé’s airport and the artificial island of Hulhumalé face serious risk from even modest increases in water height, so the government has begun building a floating city as a potential refuge. The Maldives represents the frontline for small island nations, places where entire populations may need to relocate within a generation.

Banjarmasin, Indonesia

Cars push through a flooded commercial street, with water splashing around their tires and a cell tower visible against the gray sky. — *The city sits on a river delta where tidal flooding and heavy rainfall regularly overwhelm drainage systems. Image by: Muhammad Ramadhana, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Banjarmasin, the City of Thousand Rivers, sits below sea level on a swampy delta. Climate Central’s maps show the Barito River regularly overflowing its banks by 2030. The flooding threatens residential areas and the indigenous Banjarese culture that has developed here over centuries. Indonesia already struggles with Jakarta’s vulnerability and lacks resources to protect every threatened city, forcing difficult choices about where to invest in defenses and where to plan for managed retreat.

Tokyo, Japan

Flood-damaged Japanese town in a mountain valley, with mud-covered debris scattered around homes and a swollen brown river running through the wreckage. — *Western Japan’s July 2018 disaster killed more than 200 people and destroyed thousands of homes across the region. Image by: Hajime NAKANO from Tokyo, Japan, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons*

Tokyo sits on Tokyo Bay. Exposed to both sea level rise and storm surge from typhoons, substantial portions of the metropolitan area could flood without effective countermeasures. At the UN Security Council session on rising seas, Japan’s representative called the threat as imminent as an invasion by a foreign nation. Tokyo has resources that poorer cities lack, but even wealthy nations cannot engineer their way out of every scenario.

Houston, United States

Floodwater reaches the base of a "Welcome to Houston" sign at the Interstate Motor Lodge, with the motel building visible behind it. — *Hurricane Harvey in 2017 dumped more than 60 inches of rain on parts of the region. Image by: Chief Petty Officer Joshua Kelsey, via Wikimedia Commons*

Parts of Houston sink two inches per year from excessive groundwater pumping, according to the World Economic Forum. Hurricane Harvey made the consequences clear in 2017 when it damaged nearly 135,000 homes and displaced around 30,000 people. The lower the city sits, the worse such flooding becomes, but Texas has continued developing flood-prone areas anyway, adding more people and property to the danger zone.

What These Cities Face Next

Global map highlighting coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise, with red zones marking low-lying regions along virtually every continent's coastline and white dots indicating major population centers. — *Low-lying regions across Asia, Africa, and small island nations face the greatest risk as oceans expand and ice sheets melt. Image by: NASA, via Wikimedia Commons*

For the cities that could disappear by 2030, the timeline for action has nearly run out. Some nations have already started relocating capitals, as Indonesia is doing with Nusantara, while others invest in floating infrastructure and water parks that double as reservoirs. But these defenses cost money that wealthy nations have, and poorer ones do not. By 2050, C40 Cities projects that more than 800 million people in 570 cities could face a serious risk from rising seas. With economic costs from flooding reaching one trillion dollars. Resources for adaptation remain as unequally distributed as the emissions that caused the problem.

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